The triumphant return of The Guy Who Is Never Right

Last year I let my friend the Colonel pick football games. Due to popular demand (he asked me if he could do it) he's back once again. These are his words. I endorse all of them. Most of them. A few of them. I endorse about half of them.

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Big thanks for Aaron for allowing me to come back for the playoffs, as I thoroughly enjoy doing this. Lines are as of 3pm on Friday. For my own part, I’m putting $50 on every game, and I am GUARANTEEING a playoff record of at least 7-4. GUARANTEED. STONE COLD….. MORTAL…. LOCK.

Atlanta (-1.5) at Arizona
I have to admit, when I first saw this match up, I thought that the Cardinals were gonna pull a minor upset. Arizona, despite basically forfeiting games down the stretch, still had an impressive 6-2 record at home, and even in the years where they have sucked they’ve been a tough team to beat on the road. However, of their 8 wins this year, only one was against another playoff team in week 2 against Miami, and that was before Miami started playing well. On the other hand, while Atlanta was only 4-4 on the road, 2 of those wins came against playoff teams (Minnesota and San Diego), and if one break had gone their way in New Orleans they’d be 5-3 on the road and riding a 6 game winning streak into the playoffs. The Cardinals don’t really offer anything defensively to stop the Falcons, and even Ben Roethlesberger won a playoff game his rookie year and he didn’t play nearly as well as Matt Ryan did as a rookie this season. Finally, after seeing that Edgerrin James is already announcing he’s not coming back he doesn’t seem to be very interested in this game, leaving the Cardinatls with essentially no running game. Expect a big game from John Abraham getting to Warner and Michael Turner tearing up the Cards defense to the tune of over 150 yards on the ground.

Atlanta 31
Arizona 14

Indianapolis (-1.5) at San Diego
Guess how many teams the Chargers have beaten this year that are currently in the playoffs? Big, fat, ZERO. Hell, in two games against KC, they won by a combined 2 points and needed a miracle onside kick to beat them the second time. Tomlinson is hurting, Gates is almost guaranteed not to play, and there’s still the pesky issue of Norv Turner being in charge of well….. anything. Dungy and Manning have too much experience here, and while Indy doesn’t really pose any threat of a ground game this year, they still have way too many weapons for San Diego’s awful secondary to contain. I don’t expect a blowout, but I think that Indy is a fairly safe pick here.

Indy 27
San Diego 21

Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami
Two months ago I didn’t either one of these teams had that good of a chance of being here, and I certainly didn’t expect the Ravens to be the biggest favorite out of all the teams playing on wild card weekend. This game is by far the biggest mystery of the four, because Miami never turns the ball over, and Baltimore thrives on turnovers. I didn’t get to see the game when these two teams played a while ago, but from what I understand the Ravens pretty much destroyed every play out of the funky formations that Miami likes to run. I think the biggest difference maker in this game for the Dolphins is Joey Porter, who probably needs to have the game of his life to keep them competitive and force a few fumbles of his own, or at least record a few big sacks. Derrick Mason is the biggest receiving threat the Ravens have, and he only has one arm. It’s really been hysterical to watch him absolutely handle the Cowboys and Jaguars corners the past two weeks running as if he’s handicapped. The Miami corners won’t be so easily burned, and I think the Dolphins have what it takes here to put enough points on the board to send the Ravens home early.

Baltimore 13
Miami 14

Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota
I’ll try and keep my bias aside for this one. The misconception coming into this game is that the Vikings sport the superior defense. With the exception of Rushing YPG, the Eagles are better in EVERY defensive category, and it’s not like the Eagles need to rush for 100+ to win a game. As long as they attempt to run, the Eagles are usually in pretty good shape, and I think Andy Reid has finally realized that Correll Buckhalter is a useful player in the offense, but I’ve been wrong about Andy before. On the receiving end, the Vikings are in the bottom 3rd in the league defending opposing TE’s, so between Brent Celek and LJ Smith (if he plays) one of them needs to produce. Kevin Curtis has also turned into a fairly reliable 3rd down guy, and they’ll need him to keep the chains moving and just let DeShaun Jackson handle the deep stuff. On the offensive side for the Vikings, aside from the obvious Adrian Peterson and the good offensive line, nobody else really should scare anybody. Bernard Berrian has had only one good game with Jackson at QB, and that was only because the Giants put in the reserves in the 4th quarter last week. Of the 6 games Jackson played in this year, I saw three of them, and to be honest it just seems like he kinda drops back, looks at one WR, and if he isn’t open he panics and either runs or just floats the ball somewhere and prays it hits the ground. Expect Jim Johnson to blitz nearly every time on 3rd down passing situations, while sort of backing off on first down in an effort to keep Peterson from breaking any long runs. One guy who DOES scare me is Chester Taylor, who tends to be the dump off man in passing situations and the guy had made plays in those situations all season long. In conclusion, both defenses are formidable, but if the Eagles keep their attack balanced, which I think they will, they should be protecting a lead late in the game and the Vikings will need to rely on Jackson to win the game, which he won’t.

Eagles 24
Vikings 16