The Complete Idiot's Guide to Roger Clemens

Editor's Note: I am in a state that combines rage, panic and sheer disbelief into one miserable existence. I know Johan Santana is now a New York Met. I'll deal with that tomorrow. If I were to write that column right now it would be nothing but exclamation points, capital letters and a whole mess of dirty words. Tomorrow, I may still feel the same way. I'm at least going to give myself a little sleep before I go calling people names.

Roger Clemens is screwed. That's about all there is to it. He went on '60 Minutes' and after he clearly practiced what he was going to say he still didn't convince anybody of anything. He then held a press conference and played a tape of a conversation between him and Brian McNamee which proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that both men are pretty stupid. However, I don't believe that was his intent.

So, what's a guy to do? He went on the TV....twice! And still the public doesn't believe he's telling the truth. Apparently, people are more likely to believe a trainer that had nothing to gain and everything to lose by giving false information about Clemens to law enforcement. I almost feel bad for the guy. But, then I read this report. It's well thought out, put together nicely, has some charts, colors and one hell of a Table of Contents. However, if the point of this was to prove that steroids played no part in Clemens' sudden resurgence between the ages of 34 and 40 then this falls quite short for a number of reasons.

One of the big points this document attempts to make is that if you compare Clemens' stats with other "power pitchers" such as Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Nolan Ryan their careers experience similar ebbs and flows. It makes the case that if you look at pitchers similar to Clemens in terms of success, longevity and pitching-style you see similar career paths. The conclusion that the Hendricks Brothers want the reader to come to is the following. "Well, if Johnson, Schilling, Ryan and Clemens had similar careers and we know none of the other guys took steroids then there's no way Clemens could have possibly taken roids to pump up his performance." Makes enough sense, right? Actually, it doesn't. It's called inductive reasoning. It's also pretty shoddy reasoning. Allow me to throw an example that'll clarify what I mean.

Take a single example of something happening. Let's say, your friend is wearing a green shirt, black shoes and a Phillies hat and he gets laid that evening. If you follow the logic the Hendricks want you to, then all you have to do is wear a green shirt, black shoes and a Phillies hat and BAM - fornication. Sounds stupid, right? That's because it is. Inductive reasoning takes a single example to make a generalization (think of it as an upside-down triangle - start small at the bottom then make a large general claim at the top.)

Another way the Hendricks want you to reason is like this.

Roger Clemens' stats are normal for a power pitcher who pitched into his 40s
Curt Schilling's stats are normal for a power pitcher who pitched into his 40s
Therefore
Roger Clemens is Curt Schilling.

Sounds stupid, right? That's because it is. Or at least, it's logically incorrect. The same logic applies to this statement.

My grandfather is dead.
George Washington is dead
Therefore
My grandfather is George Washington.

Just because both of the first two parts are true does not make the conclusion true. The Hendricks brothers are lawyers, they obviously know these things. Why would they use such arguments in a report that is supposed to make a solid argument? Because those are the only arguments the can make.

Clemens went on TV and basically said McNamee was a liar and the tape would prove that. He played the tape........and he didn't convince anybody of anything. It was just Clemens sounding whiny. He's a Texan. Texans don't whine. They grunt, scowl and THEY DIG HOLES WITH A SHOVEL!! This report simply shows the extent to which Clemens is clutching at straws to salvage his public image. Anybody who has retired and come back as many times as he has absolutely cares about their legacy and how they will be remembered. Like I mentioned earlier - I almost feel for the guy. He's one of the greatest pitchers ever (steroids or no steroids) and this could tarnish his image. When baseball is your entire life and what you do for a living for over 20 years, it really does matter how those in the game think of you. I don't care how many times you say it doesn't.

My favorite two parts of the report were at the very end when it listed the accolades of the three guys who wrote it and all of the Hall of Fame pitchers who pitched into their 40's. These really felt like they had no place in the entire report. First of all, why do I care where these Hendricks clowns went to college and that Randy Hendricks is in the Senior Softball Hall of Fame (I'm not joking, it's in there.) Do they really think, "God, I just am not sure why I should believe what these guys are telling me. I mean, the one guy is just a stat-head and the other guy is....wait wait wait.....he was on how many national championship senior softball teams? Jesus, this guy knows his shit! I'm sorry. I underestimated the lot of you. Clemens, you're cleared of any wrong-doings. Hey, Phil! Did you know this guy is a Senior Softball Hall of Famer? I know! So, weird! Why'd we ever question him? We're idiots! What's that? Bret Hendricks is a black belt in tae kwon do?? Jesus Christmas, dude we can't fuck with him! He'll kick out ass!.....And a state debate champion when he was in high school? God, man. He'll kick our ass then beat us in an argument about it. We can't beat these guys. We lose. Call 'em up. Apologize for doubting them." Really? You've got a black belt? You're a senior softball hall of famer? This isn't a goddamn personal ad. You're not throwing this thing up on match.com or Craig's List looking for swingin' time. This is real life, gentlemen!

The list of Hall of Fame pitchers that still pitched into their 40's is really just strange. Herb Penhock!? Dear God, you're kidding me! Eppa Rixey? Heavens to Betsy! Red Ruffing? Well, shut my mouth! These guys all sounds like gangsters from the 1920's or bartenders at a speakeasy. "Hey, what do ya have there, sport? A whistlin' wally? A prickly Poindexter? Or the ole' Binghamton Bungalow Shakedown? Maybe a little saucy molasses boondoggle lighten ya up a smidgen. See? Yeah? See? Coppers, are ya? Why I outta...get out from under there, Charlie. Ya gotta run out to that drugstore cowboy at Barney Go-Daddy's and grab some more hooch!" What exactly are we supposed to draw from this list? "Well, I guess if these guys pitched into their 40's then I guess Clemens could have without steroids." All this does is confuse me and make me suspect Roger of bootlegging liquor at some point.

The arguments are weak, it's possible the Hendricks are simply looking for a softball team to play on (or a Tae Kwon Do gym) and Roger Clemens has a lot in common with gangsters from the 1920's. If this was the goal of this thing then....well done sirs.